Posts tagged ‘prediction’

You don’t fool me

On certain things in life we have absolutely no influence whatsoever. People die everyday and most of us may not be the cause for that ..I hope ..well, at least I’m not the one pushing cigarettes into your mouth. No discussion about the hard-fought vitamin sticks here – that’s not what I meant. There are specific events in everyones life where our predictions are just correct. We know what is going to happen (see When we see the blood prior to the cut). We know what would be the appropriate thing to do. Still, we don’t do it or do something else.
This may raise the questions on the existence of determination, free will, spirits, ghosts and the perfect chocolate cream. Alright, maybe I drifted a bit away. The problem comes with the environment we see everything in. More theoretically, it’s our own angle of view we rely on. So, when you see yourself standing in the supermarket in front of the beverages, you find yourself thinking about a free decision which drink to purchase. As soon as you virtually make one step back, you see hundreds of advertisements for the drink you are about to indulge. Switch to the third person view and zoom out of the store. You’ll see your workplace and your free will of choosing right that department store. The bird’s-eye view gives you further insight into your working environment where your colleges told you about that specific shopping centre. And this goes on and on.

If we’d finally zoom out the entire universe and, as wee addition, would be able to understand it. We’d probably find out that everything has it’s reasons and determination. Regardless, we can’t blame the higher reason instead of the rapist. Everybody has a choice, because we don’t know any life but ours.
It’s up to you!


January 18, 2008 at 7:52 pm Leave a comment

To beat your own statistics

Organisms love patterns. The reason is quite simple. They like to predict behaviour correctly. Obviously, being right has the mentionable advantage of triggering the ejection seat at the right moment or deciding not to fight with two angry jaguars. But besides that, simple patterns are just boring.
However, scientists found out why the hell humans laugh. They analysed jokes and dah, dah,.. The reason we laugh is out of curiosity. Some may also laugh because somebody tickles them. Nevertheless, this means that you can make up a joke by stating something and afterwards just use a line that wouldn’t be predicted easily. So, if we predict something wrong, laughing will release endorphins and still make us happy. It’s only a question of how to explain that to the jaguars.

This reminds me of one of my favourite quotes. ‘Confusion is always the most honest response’ by Marty Indik. (Uh, interesting, my cerebral cortex seems to messed up confusion and curiosity.) However I found out that he also said ‘Half of analysis is anal’. Notice! This second quote is the perfect and short example to the theory of jokes mentioned before. What else did I have to find out? ‘”Non-notable lawyer.” by LrdChaos’ in July 2006. If that isn’t notable?
How trustworthy is the Internet? If you know something about Mr Indik, LrdChaos or July 2006 – tell me, I’m dying to know. Not physically, more on a neurological level.
Statistics reveal: don’t trust statistics!

November 29, 2007 at 7:34 pm 2 comments

When we see the blood prior to the cut

It’s remarkable how excellent our estimation skills are. We are able to predict precisely how somebody will react to a special action we take. Most of the time we’ll be right. We just might not realise it because we’re stupid. But we’re right. I might also relieve you, you’re not stupid – not for planning ahead, we just do it so often we don’t even realise that we’re doing it at all. We look, contemplate, guess and act in order to see our future the way we planned it seconds ago.
We run on neat little pattern matching algorithms with forward prediction. Based on experience we act to build up a better future – for ourselves. The better you get, the more challenging it can be.

So it might happen that we’re wrong. This can be really hard to realise when you’re totally sure about yourself and your decisions. It’s possible to fool yourself completely with such things. For example you saw a dish on the menu but you read it wrong. You make up your own picture of what to expect. After some time, when you finally get your disappointment you think you’re misunderstood. This works with food, online shopping, weapons of mass destruction – almost everything.

To question everything you do might not be a good solution. You’ll only appear slow and maybe a bit retarded. I’d go for hoping the best but expecting the worst, but let me know when you’re completely able to do that.
Don’t ask obvious questions if you don’t like the answer!

October 16, 2007 at 5:52 pm Leave a comment

When the fish stops smelling

You might think it’s bad when fish starts to smell. But it’s usually worse when it stops to. The reason is that we’re used to the odour of ourselves. If something starts to smell, something is wrong ..or you forgot about the biological kitchen waste. When it stops without a reason, like you getting rid of the waste, it means that something happened and you might not realise it because you’re used to the not-smelling of nothing-wrong.
This is where it gets a bit complicated.
The problem is, when something seems right, its most of the time just pretending to be right. Master in this discipline is the modern human. Some even get away by only pretending to be someone else. Actors for example. Some live good by simulating knowledge in time, functions and people. Take some managers. The whole stock market is based on theoretical values.

Whom can you really trust? Maybe shrinks, pretending to know what we’re thinking? This issue goes even deeper. In the end everybody only does what he thinks is best for him. Seems nice if you support freedom of opinion and so on. The troubles start as soon as you want something different as your plumber. So, you pay people to want the same as you do?
Sometimes it’s not the fish that smells!

October 14, 2007 at 4:03 pm Leave a comment

Things you believe to believe in

So it was not until I chose the wrong 9, that I realised something. Everything might be right, if only you look at it the right way. All makes perfect sense to me now. I mean, if you have the perfect reason to kick somebody’s backside – why shouldn’t you? If you can probably get something precious, why not do a small favour – by kicking somebody’s butt?
And so it goes down to persuade somebody – anybody about their belief in various asserted values. Ah, aren’t we easy to figure out? Well, it’s not all that easy. Since we were gifted with our own vertically challenged point of view, we can merely imagine different ones. Therefore we predict and persuade, we want and we obtain.

The point is, nothing really is for sure. Concluding, the majority is right? No, well, maybe. If most women wear high-heeled shoes, it doesn’t mean that they are comfortable. Also, it doesn’t mean they are foolish suffering for the opposite sex – or the same – who knows these days. Neither, this implies that men are dumb for preferring women with feet-deformation intentions.

Probably, everything we might conclude is that the majority has a good point in the specific belief where they dominate. Anyhow, when the majority thinks arsenic tastes neat, I’d love to be in opposition.
Even even looks odd from one side!

October 3, 2007 at 5:02 pm Leave a comment

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